香港地区大气加权平均温度建模与研究
Modeling and research on weighted average atmospheric temperature in Hongkong
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摘要: 在地基GPS水汽反演过程中,针对因大气加权平均温度的精度而影响大气可降水量计算结果精度的问题,文中采用回归分析方法对香港地区2006-2016年的探空数据进行研究,构建适用于香港地区的单因子以及多因子两种大气加权平均温度计算模型.并使用两种模型分别预测2017年加权平均温度,与多种经验公式结果以及真值进行对比,单因子和多因子模型与真值的偏差在-5 ~5 K范围内分别占比80.72%和85.26%,明显优于其他经验公式;且按季节分别建模对大气加权平均温度计算结果的精度并没有明显提高,但按昼夜分别建模能够使计算结果的精度得到明显的提高.因此为了能够使水汽反演计算时的精度得到提升,应当使用当地多年的探空气象资料构建适用于当地的加权平均温度计算模型,对于提高GPS反演大气水汽总量的精度具有重要意义.Abstract: Aiming at the accuracy of calculation results of atmospheric precipitation affected by the precision of atmospheric weighted mean temperature in the groundbased GPS water vapor retrieval process, the regression analysis method is used to study the sounding data of Hong Kong from 2006 to 2016, and the singlefactor and multi-factor atmospheric weighted mean temperature calculation models for Hong Kong are constructed. The two models are used to predict the 2017 weighted mean temperature. Compared with the results of various empirical formulas and true values, the deviations between the two models and true values account for 80.72% and 85.26% respectively in the range of -5 K~5 K, which is obviously better than other empirical formulas. Moreover, the accuracy of the weighted mean temperature calculated by seasonal modeling has not been significantly improved, but the accuracy of the calculated results can be significantly improved by diurnal modeling. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of the water vapor retrieval calculation, the local meteorologic data in the air should be used to construct a local weighted mean temperature calculation model, which is of great significance for improving the accuracy of GPS total water vapor retrieval.