多系统GNSS大气可降水量反演分析及其应用

Analysis of precipitable water vapor inversion based on multi-GNSS PPP and its application in Zhengzhou “7·20” rainstorm

  • 摘要: 大气可降水量(precipitable water vapor,PWV)在中小尺度灾害性天气预报中占据重要地位,是预测降水强度不可或缺的关键参数. 自20世纪80—90年代起,全球学者便利用GPS技术对PWV进行了广泛而深入的研究. 精密单点定位(precise point positioning,PPP)技术,凭借其高精度、高时间分辨率以及低廉的单站运行成本,被广泛用于反演PWV中. 为进一步提升PWV反演的准确性,本文在多系统PPP模型的基础上引入了对流层梯度参数估计,有效增强了GNSS PPP在复杂降水大气环境下的对流层延迟提取能力. 使用全球分布的200个 MGEX (Multi-GNSS Experiment,MGEX)测站进行实验,结果表明参考对流层梯度参数可以提高GNSS天顶对流层湿延迟(zenith wet delay,ZWD)估计精度,其平均值、标准差(standard deviation,STD)和均方根(root mean square,RMS)分别提高36.4%~40.7%、5.3%~8.7%和7.8%~17.9%,对应得到的PWV与水汽辐射计(water vapor radiometer,WVR)符合性更好. 此外针对PWV和ZWD只能反映降水过程、难以判断降水时间的问题,本文提出了一种创新的方法,即结合PWV、气温和露点温度来综合判断降水是否发生. 为验证该方法的可靠准确性,利用郑州2021年“7·20”暴雨事件进行PWV反演验证. 实验结果表明,通过综合考虑当地气温、露点温度以及PPP反演的PWV值,能够更为准确地预测降水的发生.

     

    Abstract: Precipitable water vapor (PWV) plays an important role in small and medium-scale severe weather forecasting and is one of the important parameters for precipitation intensity forecasting. Since the 1980, many scholars have conducted a large number of studies on PWV using GPS. Precise point positioning (PPP) technology is widely used in the PWV inversion due to its advantages of high accuracy, high temporal resolution, and low operating cost for single stations. To improve the accuracy of PWV inversion, the tropospheric gradient parameters are added into the multi-system PPP model to improve the accuracy of GNSS PPP in extracting tropospheric delay under complex atmospheric conditions with precipitation. The experiment use global data from 200 MGEX stations. The results showed that estimating tropospheric gradient parameters can improve the estimation accuracy of GNSS zenith wet delay (ZWD). The mean value, standard deviation (STD), and root mean square (RMS) increased by 36.4%~40.7%, 5.3%~8.7%, and 7.8%~17.9% with tropospheric gradient parameter estimation, respectively. The corresponding PWV obtained is in better comformity with the water vapor radiometer (WVR). In addition, in response to the problem that PWV and ZWD can only reflect the precipitation process and are difficult to determine the precipitation time, a method combined PWV, temperature, and dew point temperature to determine the occurrence of precipitation is proposed, and the Zhengzhou 2021 “7·20” rainstorm event is used to verify the reliability and accuracy of this method.The experimental results show that the combination of local temperature, dew point temperature, and PPP-inferred PWV can accurately determine the occurrence of precipitation.

     

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