基于ICEEMDAN和SSA-LSTM组合模型的电离层TEC预测

Ionospheric TEC prediction based on ICEEMDAN and SSA-LSTM combined models

  • 摘要: 针对电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)具有非线性和非平稳性的特性及单一LSTM模型在预测中存在精度不高且易陷入局部最优等问题,在改进的自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解(improved complete ensemble EMD with adaptive noise,ICEEMDAN)和样本熵算法的基础上,结合麻雀搜索算法(sparrow search algorithm,SSA)和长短期记忆神经网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)构建电离层TEC组合预测模型,并对太阳活动低年平静期和太阳活动高年扰动期电离层TEC连续5 d的预测精度分析. 实验结果表明,本文组合模型相较于单一LSTM模型和SSA-LSTM模型在低太阳活动平静期和高太阳活动扰动期的不同经纬度下,均方根误差分别最大降低1.06 TECU和2.25 TECU,平均绝对误差分别最大降低了0.74 TECU和1.68 TECU,平均相对精度分别最大提升了7.63%和8.97%,组合模型的预测效果要明显优于单一LSTM模型和SSA-LSTM模型.

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) and the problems that a single LSTM model has in prediction, such as low accuracy and easy to fall into local optimality,On the basis of improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) and sample entropy (SE) algorithms, combined with sparrow search algorithm (SSA) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, a combined prediction model for TEC in the ionosphere was constructed, and analyzes the prediction accuracy of ionospheric TEC during the low year calm period of solar activity and the high year disturbance period of solar activity for 5 consecutive days. The experimental results show that compared with the single LSTM model and the SSA-LSTM model, the root mean square error of the combined model in this paper is reduced by 1.06 TECU and 2.25 TECU respectively under different latitude and longitude of the low solar activity quiet period and the high solar activity disturbance period. The average absolute error decreased by 0.74 TECU and 1.68 TECU respectively, and the average relative accuracy increased by 7.63% and 8.97% respectively. The prediction effect of the combined model was significantly better than that of the single LSTM model and the SSA-LSTM model.

     

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