BP神经网络模型的电离层预报精度评估

Accuracy evaluation of ionospheric prediction based on BP neural network model

  • 摘要: 针对电离层电子总含量(total electron content,TEC)时间序列高噪声、非线性和非平稳的动态序列的特点,基于反向传播神经网络(back propagation neural network,BPNN)模型对欧洲定轨中心(Centre for Orbit Determination in Europe,CODE)提供的电离层格网 (global ionosphere maps,GIM) 数据产品中低纬度、中纬度、高经纬格网点TEC数据和对应的时间点、经纬度、太阳射电通量F10.7数据、赤道地磁活动指数Dst、全球地磁活动指数Kp数据进行样本训练并进行电离层预报. 结果表明:基于BPNN模型能够较好地预报低纬度、中纬度和高纬度电离层TEC数值,平均相对精度分别到达了90.5%、88.7%、85.35%,残差均值分别为1.505 TECU、1.595 TECU、1.885 TECU,平均均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)值分别为1.94 TECU、2.13 TECU、3.08 TECU.

     

    Abstract: In view of the characteristics of the high noise, nonlinear and non-stationary dynamic sequence of the total electron content (TEC) time series, based on the BP neural network (BPNN) model, the TEC data of the global ionospheric map (GIM) products provided by the center for orbit determination in Europe (CODE) in the middle and low latitudes, middle latitudes and high latitudes and the corresponding time points, longitude and latitude, solar radio flux F10.7 data, equatorial geomagnetic activity index Dst The global geomagnetic activity index Kp data were trained and ionospheric prediction was carried out. The results confirmed that the BPNN model based on BP neural network can better predict the low latitude, middle latitude and high latitude ionospheric TEC values, and the average relative accuracy reached 90.5%, 88.7% and 85.35% respectively, the adjustment residuals are 1.505 TECU, 1.595 TECU, and 1.885 TECU, with RMSE values of 1.94 TECU, 2.13 TECU, and 3.08 TECU, respectively.

     

/

返回文章
返回