一种基于机器学习算法的区域/单站ZTD组合预测模型

A regional/single station ZTD combined forecasting model based on machine learning algorithm

  • 摘要: 针对天顶对流层总延迟(ZTD)具有一定的时空变化特性,提出了一种基于BP神经网络、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)算法的区域/单站ZTD组合预测模型. 以连续14天香港连续运行参考站(CORS)网络18个监测站观测数据为例,利用BP神经网络、LSTM及本文算法进行了区域、单站及二者组合ZTD预测模型研究. HKWS测站的预测结果表明:利用前13天数据预报第14天数据,区域、单站、组合模型ZTD预测的均方根误差(RMSE)分别为10.2 mm、10.4 mm、8.5 mm,组合模型相对于区域、单站模型预测精度分别提升了17.2%、18.4%.

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the temporal and spatial characteristics of zenith tropospheric total delay (ZTD), a combined regional/single station ZTD prediction model based on BP neural network and long-term memory network (LSTM) algorithm is proposed. Taking the observation data of 18 stations in Hong Kong continuously operating reference stations (CORS) network for 14 consecutive days as an example, the regional, single station and combined ZTD prediction models are studied by using BP neural network, LSTM and the algorithm proposed in this paper. The prediction results of HKWS station show that the root mean square error (RMSE) of regional, single station and combined ZTD prediction models are 10.2 mm, 10.4 mm and 8.5 mm respectively, and the prediction accuracy of the combined model is improved by 17.2% and 18.4% compared with the regional model and the single station model, respectively.

     

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