基于时间加权最小二乘法的多系统 GNSS PWV融合方法研究

Research on multi-GNSS PWV fusion method based on time-weighted least squares

  • 摘要: 地基GNSS反演的大气可降水量(precipitable water vapor, PWV)作为大气水汽含量的关键参数,在降雨监测与预报中发挥着重要作用. GNSS的快速发展,为水汽反演提供了丰富的数据源. 由于GPS、北斗卫星导航系统(BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, BDS)、Galileo和GLONASS四个系统水汽反演精度各有差异,不同系统在不同时间段的PWV精度并不固定,单一系统的精度并不总是处于最优状态且误差方向并不一致,因此,本文提出一种基于时间加权最小二乘(time-weighted least squares, TWLS)法的多系统GNSS PWV融合方法,并选取2023年中国香港地区17个GNSS测站的各系统水汽反演数据进行融合实验. 结果表明:本文提出的TWLS方法能够显著提升水汽反演精度. TWLS方法的PWV与探空站PWV相比,在UTC 00:00时,相较于最优单系统均方根误差(root mean square error, RMSE)从2.3 mm降低至0.69 mm,提升幅度约70%,平均绝对误差(mean absolute error, MAE)从1.68 mm降低至0.4 mm,提升幅度约76.2%;相较于三种传统方法:普通最小二乘法(cordinay least squares, OLS)、加权最小二乘法(weighted least squares, WLS)与贝叶斯模型平均法(Bayesian madel averaging, BMA),TWLS方法的PWV在UTC 00:00时RMSE分别提升了68.8%、70.1%、71.6%;MAE分别提升了75.5%、76.5%、77.7%;以第五代气候再分析(the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis,ERA5) PWV为参考值,相较于三种传统方法,TWLS融合后的PWV在各测站处RMSE最低至2.1 mm,MAE最低至1.4 mm.

     

    Abstract: Precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from ground-based GNSS inversion, serves as a critical parameter for atmospheric water vapor content and plays a vital role in rainfall monitoring and forecasting. The rapid advancement of four systems GPS, BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS), Galileo, and GLONASS has provided abundant data sources for water vapor inversion. However, the accuracy of water vapor inversion varies across these four systems, the PWV accuracy of different systems varies across time periods, and the precision of any single system is not consistently optimal, and the direction of errors is not uniform. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-system GNSS PWV fusion method based on time-weighted least squares (TWLS). Fusion experiments were conducted using PWV inversion data from 17 GNSS stations in Hong Kong during 2023. Results demonstrate that the proposed TWLS method significantly enhances water vapor inversion accuracy. Compared to sounding station PWV at UTC 00:00, the TWLS method reduces root mean square error (RMSE) from 2.3 mm to 0.69 mm, an improvement of approximately 70% and decreases mean absolute error (MAE) from 1.68 mm to 0.4 mm, an improvement of approximately 76.2%. Compared to three traditional methods ordinary least squares (OLS), weighted least squares (WLS), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA), the TWLS method’s PWV at UTC 00:00 improved RMSE by 68.8%, 70.1%, and 71.6%, respectively; MAE improved by 75.5%, 76.5%, and 77.7%, respectively. Using the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) PWV as the reference value, compared to the three traditional methods, the TWLS-fused PWV achieved the lowest RMSE of 2.1 mm and the lowest MAE of 1.4 mm at all observation stations.

     

/

返回文章
返回